Macro · Liquidity

#35 Macro Liquidity Weekly Checklist: A 10-Minute Regime Read

May 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Live capture of Macro Liquidity Scan in Inveflo.

📍 Home › ANALYSIS_2 › Widget 1: Macro Liquidity Scan

0) Where to Find This Widget

From the main dashboard (12 tiles), open ANALYSIS_2. At the top, Widget 1: Macro Liquidity Scan shows Fed Balance Sheet (T), Reverse Repo (B), TGA (T), and Net Liquidity (T).

1) TL;DR

Run one checklist per week. If Net Liquidity is > 5.0T and rising, you can size risk-on. If it is < 4.0T or falling for 2 weeks, you must de-risk. The goal is not prediction — it’s avoiding the mistake of holding max exposure during liquidity tightening.

2) Hook (Pain-Driven)

The common failure mode is simple: your watchlist is right, your entries are fine — but you’re sized like it’s risk-on while liquidity is tightening. A 10-minute weekly checklist is enough to prevent that category of loss.

3) Problem

Most investors rebalance only after price damage. Liquidity is a leading constraint: when it tightens, breakouts fail more often and drawdowns deepen. Without a calendar-based routine, you react late and churn.

4) Solution (Widget Introduction)

Use Widget 1: Macro Liquidity Scan as a “regime filter.” You do not need a perfect model — you need a consistent read.

• Fed Balance (T): baseline liquidity supply.
• RRP (B): parked cash; rising tends to be risk-off.
• TGA (T): treasury cash drain; rising tends to tighten liquidity.
• Net Liquidity (T): the combined “effective” liquidity.

5) Logic Breakdown (Formula + Thresholds)

• Risk-On Zone: NetLiquidity > 5.0T AND 2-week slope > 0.
• Neutral Zone: NetLiquidity 4.0T–5.0T OR mixed signals.
• Risk-Off Zone: NetLiquidity < 4.0T OR 2-week slope < 0 with rising RRP.
• Confirmation Rule: flip only after 2 consecutive weekly closes in the new zone or a 0.40T move in 14 days.

6) Practical Use (IF X → THEN Y)

• If NetLiquidity is > 5.0T for 2 weeks and RRP is falling, then increase long exposure by +20% over 3 sessions.
• If NetLiquidity drops below 4.0T and stays there for 2 weeks, then cut equity exposure by 25% and tighten stops by 1–2%.
• If NetLiquidity is in 4.0T–5.0T but RRP spikes materially, then keep exposure flat and reduce new entries by 50%.

7) Common Mistakes

• Flipping regimes on a single week print (ignore 1-week noise; use the 2-week confirmation rule).
• Using only Fed Balance level and ignoring RRP/TGA (net effect is what matters).
• De-risking too late after drawdown starts (the checklist exists to act before the chart breaks).